Lena Komileva

Lena Komileva is a City economist and a commentator on global economic themes with a long-established track record in financial services. Well followed for her core research, Lena works with public sector clients, policy officials, private wealth managers, hedge funds, market intermediaries, bank traders, risk officers, portfolio managers, public sector and corporate treasurers, inter-government institutions and media opinion-leaders. She is read by national and supra-national policy institutions, including the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China and the IMF. 

 

Lena is the Chief Economist and Managing Director of G+ Economics, an international market research and economic intelligence consultancy based in London. Previously she was Senior Vice President and Global Head of G10 Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, a private US custodian bank, and Director and Global Head of G7 Market Economics at Tullett Prebon, No1 Broker for Currencies in the 2010-2011 Risk Magazines rankings and the biggest government bonds broker in Europe. Lena holds a BA in Economics and an MSc Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

From the position of a top-down macro-economist with 15 years of experience in the heart of global capital markets, Lena writes on a variety of economic themes related to US, Euro area and UK fundamentals, policy, financial markets, capital flows and systemic links in the global economy. She was among the very first to argue the global implications from the securitisation crisis in the summer of 2007, including the dislocation of money markets, next-to-zero G7 monetary policy rates, the Great Recession and the new role for public capital in the functioning of financial markets with the worrying side effects of long-term public debt sustainability and global financial inflation pressures. Her product expertise lies in foreign exchange, money markets and government debt, while monitoring and analysing relationships with other markets such as volatility, credit derivatives, equities, commodities and emerging markets. Lena is a frequent contributor to the quality financial media and is regularly invited to speak at international industry forums. She graduated with an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

 

With a wealth of experience advising top-tier institutional and policy clients, Lena has written extensively on US, UK and Euro area fundamentals combining financial, monetary and macro-economic analysis. Her focus is on analysing the flow of funds between the financial industry - including the banking sector and wholesale asset markets - and the real economy, and its impact on economic and financial stability and policy. Lena was among the very first to argue the global implications from the securitisation crisis in the summer of 2007, including the dislocation of money markets, next-to-zero G7 monetary policy rates, the Great Recession, the Eurozone crisis and the new role for public capital in the functioning of financial markets with the worrying side effects of long-term public debt sustainability and global financial inflation pressures. 

 

Lena is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, the BBC, the WSJ among others. She is regularly invited to present at market industry forums and has contributed articles to Bloomberg Brief, the Financial Times, Reuters, FX Week and others. Her research has been extensively quoted in the international press and she gives regular TV and radio interviews.

 

MEDIA + INDUSTRY ENGAGEMENT 

Keynote economist address: Milan Pensions Forum

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Industry awards and recognitions

  • Over 90%  forecasting accuracy for the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. 
  • Topped Bloomberg’s poll of economists as the best forecaster for the US CPI (96.2% accuracy), 2003
  • One of the top ten forecasters in the world of the US ISM Manufacturing index, a leading indicator for the US business cycle, Bloomberg Rankings 2003. 

Product and Market Expertise

From the position of a top-down macro-economist, Lena writes on a variety of economic themes centred on the global crisis and international capital flows, and specifically on US, Euro area and UK fundamentals, policy and financial markets.

 

In addition to thematic strategy and economic analysis and forecasting, her product research focuses on foreign exchange, money markets and government debt, and the relationships with other asset classes such as volatility, credit, credit derivatives, equities, emerging markets and commodities.

G+Economics: Industry and Media

Bloomberg TV: Komileva on the Greek Crisis, EU, IMF, ECB Risks

FT Video: Lena Komileva on the Eurozone crisis

Bloomberg TV: Greece Is More Out Than In the Euro Zone - Komileva 

BBC Radio 4 "Today" programme: Could Greece leave the eurozone?

Portugal’s Jornal de Negócios: Komileva: ECB "will extend stimulus beyond 2016" (10/06/15)

Portugal’s Jornal de Negócios: Komileva: ECB "will extend stimulus" beyond 2016 (10/06/15)
Interview with Portugal’s Jornal de Negócios: Lena Komileva recognizes that the ECB's measures are already having an impact, but doubts that when we get to September 2016 inflation is 2% and there is full employment in the eurozone.
Portugal CFA article.pdf
Adobe Acrobat document [841.9 KB]

Foreign Policy: Another Bailout Won't Keep Greece in the Eurozone

Financial markets are facing a new global currency crisis. China’s surrender of a strong yuan has challenged the international monetary order of competitive easing and currency devaluation, engulfing emerging markets in a new debt-driven global demand shock. The past eight months of EU-Greece negotiations have exposed the political and financial realities of the euro, a shared national currency peg with no sovereign backstop and a dwindling capacity to withstand shocks. As Greece heads for severe recession and another snap election in 2015, under the high social toll and slim chances of economic success of a third bailout, the euro is facing a possible death spiral. Read the article here:

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